The U.S. prison population peaked at over 1.6 million in 2009, fell to about 1.2 million by end of 2023, and could decline roughly 60% to 600,000 by 2035.
Prison numbers lag crime trends by decades: mass incarceration reflects high crime and draconian sentencing from the late 20th century.
A steep drop in juvenile arrests and youth crime since the 1990s means far fewer offenders entering the prison pipeline today.
The imprisonment rate for 18–19-year-olds is now half that of seniors, reversing the 2007 pattern.
COVID-19 prompted a temporary 16% cut in prison populations, and despite a brief crime spike in 2020, overall crime and incarceration resumed declining through 2024.
By 2035 the rate could fall to 200 per 100,000, suggesting many planned prison expansions will be underused and some facilities should close.
Policy recommendations: stop building new prisons, close or replace decaying facilities, use prison-closing commissions, retrain displaced workers, and expand compassionate release for elderly inmates.
Reducing incarceration frees up significant public funds—for example, prison costs exceed K–12 education costs—while delivering broad societal benefits.
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